When I dropped an epitaph a few months ago in anticipation of the outcome of the 2024 Edo gubernatorial election, the majority of my readers viewed it as a partisan opinion expected of a party man in favour of his affiliation, but facts are sacred, and parameters for measuring possible outcomes of elections in a democracy is constant to a reasonable degree.
In the race to Edo 2024, there are three serious contenders. You can figure them out. They all have their advantages and disadvantages going into the contest, but the party platform remains the springboard. The strength of the party structure, public appeal, and “the hand of government” are the three known constants that shape the outcome of elections anywhere in the world.
Ighodalo enjoys none, except a boisterous state incumbency that has pitched itself against the public appeal and divided her party into unnumbered fragments; an incumbency power that can only be donated by a federal government to a state.
Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC, without breaking a sweat enjoys a united party platform fully backed by the PDP Legacy Coalition. Stalwarts of the PDP and their followers are moving into the APC in droves by conviction while the PDP is branding brown envelopes from Government House in the millions to buy willing APC leaders who feel it’s political cash-out time, yet, the number isn’t matching money spent so far, and the fear of betrayal stares at their faces.
The five-month Deputy Governor’s Greek gift strategy to Obidients has failed, and so have many other fantastic tactics. The clock is ticking and the excellent campaign strategy from Lagos professionals has fallen with their faces as the enormous sins of Obaseki weigh every implementation drive down.
As the cheap propaganda of “Oshiomhole is supporting Ighodalo” goes naked in the marketplace, Edo North continues to build up as APC’s stronghold, only made better with Dan and Phil if you know. Okpebholo is the defending champion of the Edo Central election and is now up against a boardroom first-time voter who campaigns in Queen’s English to his kinsmen.
Olu D is settling the Edo South misery of Oredo, Ikpoba-Okha, Egor, and parts of Ovia North East, and Uhunmwode. He is the man to beat in the metropolis, while the “Chairman Dis, Chairman Dat” is racing against failed promises by his godfather and battling against ancestrally backed traditions of the Benin Kingdom.
The plans to rig the Edo election by the Edo State Government can only be executed through the donation of force by the federal government, and when the “Asue is Tinubu’s boy” propaganda to deceive myopic loyalists fails in the course of the campaign, we’ll all go home knowing the winner before the election.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Liberty ‘Ruyi is a political analyst
